Review the Latest Player Stats for Phillies vs Braves – Sunday, June 29, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 29, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a compelling National League East matchup. The Braves are currently struggling, holding a record of 38-44, well below average for the season. In contrast, the Phillies are performing excellently with a record of 48-35, reflecting their competitive edge in the division. In their last game, the Braves fell to the Phillies, highlighting their ongoing challenges this season.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Spencer Strider, who ranks as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Strider’s statistics show a mixed bag; while he has a 4.07 ERA, his 3.35 SIERA suggests that he has been unlucky this year and could improve. He is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs and striking out 7.2 batters. However, his tendency to give up 4.7 hits and walk 1.6 batters could be problematic.

Ranger Suarez will take the mound for the Phillies, boasting an impressive 2.08 ERA this season, complemented by a solid 6.3 BB%. While his advanced stats indicate he might be due for some regression, he is still projected to pitch about 5.5 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters.

The Braves’ offense ranks 21st in MLB, which is concerning, especially against a top-tier pitcher like Suarez. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ lineup ranks 7th overall, showcasing their ability to generate runs. With the Braves favored at -140, their implied team total of 4.54 runs indicates a potential for an upset if they can capitalize on Suarez’s slight vulnerabilities.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)
  Ranger Suarez has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.4) implies that Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate this year with his 41.3 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Spencer Strider’s high usage rate of his fastball (55.2% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Eli White – Over/Under Total Bases
  In the last 7 days, Eli White’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 66 games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 68 games (+10.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+130/-170)
  Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)