Score Prediction and Insights for Athletics vs Yankees Match – June 28, 2025

Athletics

@

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees, currently holding a record of 47-34, are enjoying a strong season and sit firmly in contention for the postseason. In contrast, the Oakland Athletics are struggling with a disappointing record of 33-51, finding themselves well out of playoff contention. These two teams faced off yesterday, with the Yankees securing a victory, further solidifying their position against a struggling Oakland squad.

Clarke Schmidt is projected to take the mound for New York, bringing a solid Win/Loss record of 4-3 and an excellent ERA of 2.84 this season. Schmidt’s presence in the rotation is bolstered by his Power Rankings placement as the 56th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is capable of keeping the Athletics’ offense at bay. Although he has been somewhat lucky this season with a higher xFIP of 4.23, he still projects to allow only 2.5 earned runs over an average of 5.7 innings, showcasing his effectiveness.

JP Sears, on the other hand, will toe the rubber for Oakland. Despite a Win/Loss record of 5-7, Sears has struggled this season, with a less-than-stellar ERA of 5.44. His xFIP stands at 4.76, hinting that he might experience a bit of improvement moving forward, but he remains vulnerable against a potent Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB with 122 home runs this season.

The Yankees’ offensive firepower, featuring a 5.43 implied team total for today’s game, should pose a significant challenge for Sears. With their high strikeout rate facing a low-strikeout pitcher like Sears, the Yankees look poised to capitalize on opportunities. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a potentially high-scoring affair. With the Yankees firmly favored at a moneyline of -240, they are expected to continue their winning ways against an Athletics team that simply can’t seem to find its footing.

Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  JP Sears has relied on his slider 6.3% more often this year (40.1%) than he did last year (33.8%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Brent Rooker are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Clarke Schmidt.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Today, Luis Urias is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.1% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-245)
  The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  DJ LeMahieu has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Projected catcher Austin Wells grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games (+18.10 Units / 41% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.07 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Nick Kurtz has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 31% ROI)