Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
(-115/-105)-110
The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are set to clash on June 27, 2025, in a highly anticipated interleague showdown at Minute Maid Park. Both teams enter this matchup with identical records of 48-33, showcasing their competitive edge this season. The Astros are coming off a narrow victory against the Cubs, winning 2-1 in their last game on June 26, while the Cubs secured a decisive 3-0 win in their previous outing.
Houston’s Brandon Walter is projected to take the mound, aiming to bounce back after a rough outing on June 21, where he surrendered 7 earned runs over 6 innings. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics rank Walter as the 62nd best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he has been unlucky this season. He projects to pitch 5.0 innings today, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, but with concerns over his ability to limit hits and walks.
On the opposite side, Cade Horton is slated to start for the Cubs, boasting a solid 3-1 record and a respectable ERA of 3.73. However, the projections indicate he may not be as effective today, as he is expected to allow 2.4 earned runs while striking out only 3.9 batters on average. Horton’s performance will be crucial against an Astros offense that ranks 14th overall but 7th in batting average.
The Astros’ best hitter has been heating up, recently posting a .348 batting average over the last week, while the Cubs’ top offensive player also shines, with a .357 average in the same timeframe. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should watch how the Astros’ solid hitting can exploit Horton’s vulnerabilities, potentially giving them an edge in this tightly matched contest.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Carson Kelly has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last season’s 91.4-mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.6% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Brandon Walter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Brandon Walter (48.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 FB hitters in Chicago’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)In terms of his home runs, Isaac Paredes has been very fortunate this year. His 28.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.2.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Houston Astros with a 20.1% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 35 games at home (+17.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+6.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.30 Units / 95% ROI)