Recommended Player Prop Bets for Nationals vs Padres – Tuesday June 24, 2025

Washington Nationals

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres enter this matchup with the Washington Nationals sitting at 42-36, a record that reflects an above-average season. Meanwhile, the Nationals struggle with a 33-46 record, marking a disappointing campaign. In their previous game on June 23, the Padres faced a tough loss to the Nationals, falling 10-6, while the Nationals celebrated a much-needed victory.

The Padres are projected to start Ryan Bergert, a right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season thus far. Despite an impressive ERA of 1.88, which ranks him among the more fortunate pitchers, his xFIP of 4.64 suggests regression is likely. Bergert’s high walk rate of 9.7% could be a concern against a Nationals lineup that is among the least patient in MLB. He may benefit from this matchup, as the Nationals are ranked 6th in least walks drawn, potentially allowing him to work around his control issues.

On the other side, Trevor Williams is set to take the mound for Washington. Williams has struggled this season, owning a 5.54 ERA and a subpar 3-8 record. Although his recent outing on June 19 was solid, going 5 innings with 2 earned runs, the projections indicate he faces a tough test against a Padres lineup that ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency.

Despite the Padres’ overall offensive struggles, their strong bullpen—ranked 1st in MLB—gives them an edge in close games. With the Padres favored at -165 and an implied team total of 4.74 runs for this contest, they will look to bounce back from their recent defeat and capitalize on the Nationals’ pitching woes.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Trevor Williams is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #8 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme flyball bats like Josh Bell are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Bergert.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Brady House, Riley Adams).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Diego Padres Insights

• Ryan Bergert – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Ryan Bergert will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Martin Maldonado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Martin Maldonado has big-time HR ability (75th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (32.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Trevor Williams is a pitch-to-contact type (4th percentile K%) — great news for Maldonado.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games (+8.14 Units / 12% ROI)
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+490/-850)
  Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+17.30 Units / 173% ROI)