Tigers vs Rays Game Highlights – Friday, June 20, 2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the Detroit Tigers on June 20, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams come primed for a compelling American League matchup. The Detroit Tigers have been playing exceptional baseball with a record of 48-28, currently holding a strong position. Conversely, the Tampa Bay Rays trail slightly with a record of 41-34, showcasing a solid but not stellar season.

In their last game, the Rays fell to the Tigers by a score of 4-1, continuing their struggle at the plate. Recent performances are telling; while Shane Baz has shown flashes of brilliance, including a complete game shutout on June 15, he faces a tough challenge today. The Rays right-hander, ranked 77th among MLB starters, has a 6-3 record but an average ERA of 4.54. His peripheral stats indicate that he may have been unlucky, suggesting room for improvement.

On the flip side, Tigers pitcher Jack Flaherty comes into this game with a 5-7 record, maintaining an above-average ERA of 4.03. Although his last outing was subpar, allowing 7 earned runs, Flaherty has exhibited resilience, reflected in his ranking as the 63rd best starter. The projections suggest he will pitch about 5.4 innings and allow approximately 2.8 earned runs.

Offensively, the Rays rank 15th overall and 8th in team batting average, highlighting their potential against Flaherty. Notably, the Rays’ best hitter has had a hot week with a .444 batting average, while the Tigers’ top player has been equally impressive, boasting a .500 average over the last week.

As the Rays look to bounce back, the oddsmakers have set the Game Total at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive showdown. With both teams showing flashes of offensive prowess, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle, especially with the Rays eyeing a pivotal win as they navigate their way through the season.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Jack Flaherty’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (92.1 mph) below where it was last season (93.3 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Typically, batters like Javier Baez who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shane Baz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Shane Baz (43.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Detroit’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games (+14.63 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+18.65 Units / 93% ROI)