Guardians vs Giants Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Thursday June 19, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Guardians prepare for their matchup on June 19, 2025, the stakes are palpable. The Giants, currently sitting at 41-33, find themselves in a solid position, while the Guardians trail closely behind at 37-35. This interleague contest marks the third game of the series, and both teams are looking to capitalize on their respective pitching matchups.

In their last game, the Giants showcased their pitching strength with a solid performance, and they are projected to start Logan Webb, who ranks as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Webb has had an impressive season with a 2.58 ERA and a 6-5 record across 15 starts. He projects to pitch 6.3 innings, allowing just 2.2 earned runs on average, which bodes well for a Giants team that boasts the best bullpen in the league.

On the other side, the Guardians will counter with Gavin Williams, who, despite a decent 3.89 ERA, has shown signs of being somewhat lucky this season, as indicated by his higher SIERA and xERA. Williams has a high walk rate of 12.9%, which could be problematic against a Giants offense that excels at drawing walks, ranking 5th in MLB.

Despite the Giants’ offense ranking a lowly 22nd overall, their ability to exploit Williams’ control issues could give them the edge. With a moneyline of -170, the Giants are favored to win, reflecting a 61% implied probability of victory. Meanwhile, the Guardians, facing a tough challenge, come in as underdogs with a moneyline of +150 and a 39% win probability. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, indicating a potentially tight matchup.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Gavin Williams’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (55% compared to 48.6% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme flyball batters like Jose Ramirez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (-175)
  The San Francisco Giants infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 47% ROI)