Baltimore Orioles
Athletics
(-120/+100)+105
As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on June 8, 2025, both teams are struggling this season, with the Athletics sitting at 25-41 and the Orioles at 26-37. In their last matchup on June 7, the Athletics fell 7-4 to the Orioles, marking yet another loss for a team that has had a rough go this year.
The Athletics will turn to Jacob Lopez, a left-handed pitcher who has had a rocky season thus far. With a Win/Loss record of 0-4 and an ERA of 7.20, Lopez has struggled to find his footing on the mound. However, his 4.93 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, and he may have room for improvement as he faces a low-walk Orioles offense, ranked 6th least in MLB. Lopez projects to pitch just 4.6 innings today, averaging 2.4 earned runs while allowing a concerning 4.3 hits and 1.6 walks.
On the other hand, Baltimore will send out Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been more effective with a 5-3 record and a solid ERA of 3.04 over 12 starts. However, his 4.23 xFIP indicates he might be due for a regression. Sugano is projected for 5.5 innings but is expected to allow 3.3 earned runs, along with 6.2 hits and 1.3 walks.
Offensively, the Athletics rank 7th in MLB in home runs and boast the 4th best batting average, indicating they have the talent to score. In contrast, the Orioles rank 21st in overall offense and 22nd in batting average, which could hinder their performance against a potentially improved Lopez.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Tomoyuki Sugano’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (71.7% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Typically, hitters like Coby Mayo who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jacob Lopez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Coby Mayo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Athletics Insights
- Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Jacob Lopez’s 2113-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 6th percentile among all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Max Muncy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The underlying talent of the Athletics projected batting order today (.311 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .324 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+8.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+125/-165)Tomoyuki Sugano has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.20 Units / 43% ROI)