Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Rangers vs Rays – Thursday, June 5th, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Tampa Bay Rays

On June 5, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Texas Rangers at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the third game of their series. The Rays, currently sitting at 32-29 and enjoying an above-average season, are coming off a narrow victory yesterday where they edged the Rangers 5-4. Meanwhile, Texas stands at 29-33, struggling with a below-average performance thus far.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Ryan Pepiot for the Rays and Jack Leiter for the Rangers. Pepiot, ranked as the 100th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a solid but somewhat fortunate season with a 3.21 ERA and a 4.14 xFIP that suggests he may regress. His last start was impressive, going 7 innings with no earned runs. He projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings today, allowing 2.9 earned runs, which is below average for a pitcher.

Conversely, Jack Leiter has been struggling, landing among the worst pitchers in MLB. His 3.66 ERA contrasts sharply with a troubling 4.93 xFIP, indicating a degree of luck in his performance. He has a history of solid outings, as evidenced by his last start, where he also pitched 6 scoreless innings. However, today he projects to pitch poorly, averaging just 4.8 innings and expected to allow 2.9 earned runs.

Offensively, the Rays rank 16th overall, but they excel in stolen bases, sitting 1st in MLB. The Rangers, conversely, are struggling, ranking 29th in overall offense. Given the disparity in pitching matchups and the overall form of both teams, the Rays enter this game as betting favorites with a high implied team total of 4.54 runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (+120)
  Out of every team in action today, the 9th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Marcus Semien has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be sensible to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Generating 17.5 outs per outing this year on average, Ryan Pepiot checks in at the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Danny Jansen has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.3-mph dropping to 79.5-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 7.5% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #25 squad in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+9.25 Units / 40% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games (+15.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.25 Units / 70% ROI)