Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Phillies vs Rockies – Monday May 19, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Colorado Rockies

On May 19, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Coors Field in what is the first matchup of this series. The Rockies enter the game struggling mightily with a record of 8-38 this season, which places them at the bottom of the National League. Meanwhile, the Phillies, with a solid 28-18 record, are positioned well for a potential playoff run. This comes as the Phillies recently had a thrilling performance, winning their last game, while the Rockies continue to sink deeper into a troubled season.

Kyle Freeland is slated to take the mound for the Rockies. He has endured a rough year, with an 0-6 record and a concerning ERA of 6.15. Despite a low 3.47 xFIP suggesting he might improve, Freeland will be challenged against a potent Phillies lineup that ranks 8th in MLB offensively. The projections indicate that Freeland will average 5.2 innings pitched, allowing 3.5 earned runs, which may not be enough to keep the Rockies competitive.

Cristopher Sanchez, starting for the Phillies, brings a much more impressive resume, holding a 4-1 record with an excellent ERA of 2.91. Sanchez is a high-strikeout pitcher, which could spell trouble for the Rockies, who lead MLB in strikeouts. Considering the Rockies’ offense ranks a dismal 28th in the league, they face an uphill battle.

The game total is set at 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair. While the Rockies have been deemed massive underdogs, there may be a glimmer of hope if Freeland can capitalize on the Phillies’ weaknesses against left-handed pitching. However, the Rockies’ overall struggles suggest that the Phillies should be the favored side to win decisively.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 83rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme flyball bats like Johan Rojas tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Freeland.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)
  Kyle Freeland is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #5 HR venue among all stadiums — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Kyle Farmer has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jacob Stallings – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Stallings in the 8th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+9.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+6.90 Units / 18% ROI)