Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Giants vs Rockies Match – 7/21/24

San Francisco Giants

@

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants will meet at Coors Field on July 21, 2024, for the third game of their series. This National League West clash sees both teams struggling this season, with the Rockies holding a 36-63 record and the Giants slightly better at 47-52. Despite their lackluster seasons, the Rockies managed to take the last game in a nail-biter, winning 4-3 against the favored Giants.

On the mound for the Rockies will be Ryan Feltner, a right-handed pitcher whose season has been less than stellar. With a 1-9 record and a 5.36 ERA, Feltner has struggled, although his 4.04 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve. His projection for this game isn’t promising, with an average of 4.8 innings pitched, 2.8 earned runs allowed, and 4.6 strikeouts.

The Giants will counter with Hayden Birdsong, another righty, who is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA over four starts this season. Birdsong’s 5.01 xFIP indicates he’s been fortunate and might regress. Projections for Birdsong show an average of 4.7 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs allowed, and 4.9 strikeouts.

Offensively, both teams are fairly average. The Rockies rank 15th in MLB in runs scored, batting average, and home runs, while the Giants are slightly better at 13th in runs scored and match the Rockies’ 14th place in batting average. However, the Giants lag significantly in power, ranking 24th in home runs.

Bullpen performance could be a decisive factor. The Rockies’ bullpen ranks 23rd, while the Giants boast the 1st-best bullpen in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This discrepancy could play a crucial role as the game progresses.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Giants are favored with a 56% win probability for this game, while the Rockies sit at 44%. However, the Rockies’ recent underdog victory against the Giants and Feltner’s potential for improvement suggest this matchup could be closer than expected. Betting against the odds might yield value, especially if Feltner can outperform his season stats.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Hayden Birdsong’s 95.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 88th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Using Statcast data, Mike Yastrzemski grades out in the 1st percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .196.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ryan Feltner – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ryan Feltner is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-least on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Michael Toglia is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Aaron Schunk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Schunk in the 4th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 76 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+8.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-135/+105)
  Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+10.15 Units / 24% ROI)