Player Insights for Mariners vs Padres – 5/18/25

Seattle Mariners

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on May 18, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their strong starts to the season. The Padres, currently sitting at 27-17, boast a solid record and an impressive #4 ranking in team batting average. Meanwhile, the Mariners, with a record of 25-19, are also in contention, sitting at #10 in overall offensive performance.

In their last matchup, the Mariners edged out the Padres in a closely contested game. As they meet again for the third game of the series, both teams will lean on their starting pitchers to set the tone. San Diego is projected to start Michael King, who has been effective this season with a 4-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.32. However, King has a tendency to allow fly balls, which could be a concern against the Mariners’ power-hitting lineup, having already hit 61 home runs this season—ranking them 5th in MLB.

On the other hand, Seattle will hand the ball to Bryan Woo, who also has a 4-1 record with a solid ERA of 2.84. While Woo has been slightly less dominant than King according to the projections, he still holds a respectable position among MLB starters.

The Padres’ bullpen is ranked 4th best in MLB, providing them with a significant edge in late-game situations. With a low game total of 7.5 runs, the oddsmakers lean toward a close contest. The Padres are favored with a moneyline of -140, suggesting they have a solid chance to secure the win. Given their home advantage and offensive prowess, they could outshine the Mariners, who face a tough challenge against a high-flyball pitcher like King.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Bryan Woo’s high usage rate of his fastball (68.7% this year) is likely dampening his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 10.7% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners makes them the #4 team in the majors this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Michael King’s 91.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.2-mph fall off from last season’s 93-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jason Heyward will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+6.95 Units / 26% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+370/-560)
  Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+8.95 Units / 179% ROI)