Review the Braves vs Red Sox Insights and Game Breakdown – May 18, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Boston Red Sox

On May 18, 2025, the Boston Red Sox host the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park for the third game of their series. The Red Sox enter this matchup with a record of 23-24, while the Braves stand at 23-23, indicating both teams are having average seasons. The Red Sox managed to edge out the Braves in their previous contest, winning 7-6, and will look to build momentum with Brayan Bello on the mound. The right-hander is enjoying a solid year, holding a 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.33, making him an intriguing presence against the Braves’ offense, which ranks in the middle of the pack.

Spencer Schwellenbach, the Braves’ starter, has had a challenging season, going 2-3 with a solid ERA of 3.31; however, his expected metrics suggest he may be performing better than he ultimately will. Compared to Bello, Schwellenbach is ranked 23rd among MLB starters, indicating his capability but also revealing he may have benefitted from some fortune this year.

Offensively, the Red Sox boast the 7th best batting lineup in the league, which includes their best hitter who has recorded a remarkable 0.971 OPS this season. In contrast, the Braves’ offense ranks 16th overall and shows some inconsistencies, particularly in their power numbers, ranking only 15th in home runs.

With a Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest with the Red Sox implied to score around 4.58 runs. Given the trends and the Red Sox’s recent success at the plate and on the mound, they appear to present some value against the Braves in this matchup.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Spencer Schwellenbach must realize this, because he has gone to his non-fastballs a lot this year: 60.1% of the time, ranking in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves bats as a group rank near the top of MLB this year (6th-) when it comes to their 90-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Brayan Bello’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (94.4 mph) below where it was last season (95.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Trevor Story’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 89.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 79.4-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.80 Units / 58% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+17.20 Units / 41% ROI)