Rankings and Game Forecast: Athletics vs Giants Analysis – Saturday May 17, 2025

Athletics

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants will look to continue their strong season as they face off against the Oakland Athletics on May 17, 2025, at Oracle Park. The Giants, currently sitting at 26-19, are having a solid campaign and are coming off a convincing 9-1 victory over the Athletics just yesterday. Meanwhile, Oakland, with a 22-23 record, is hovering around the .500 mark, showcasing an average performance thus far.

In this interleague matchup, Giants’ pitcher Landen Roupp is projected to start. Roupp, despite a 2-3 record and an ERA of 4.95, is ranked as the 77th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system, suggesting he has been a bit unlucky this season. His 3.57 xFIP indicates that better days might be on the horizon, especially with projections showing he will average 5.4 innings while allowing just 2.4 earned runs.

On the other side, the Athletics will counter with Luis Severino, who has struggled this year with a 1-4 record and an average ERA of 4.70. Severino’s last outing was particularly concerning, as he allowed 8 earned runs in just 4 innings. His projections also suggest he will allow 3.1 earned runs today, which could spell trouble against a Giants offense ranked 14th in MLB this season.

The Giants’ bullpen is exceptional, ranking 1st in MLB, which gives them an edge as they look to capitalize on their offensive strengths. With a high implied team total of 4.33 runs, they seem poised to take advantage against a struggling Athletics squad that has been inconsistent at the plate. This matchup provides an intriguing narrative, especially given the Giants’ success and the Athletics’ recent struggles.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Severino has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 8.8% more often this year (48.5%) than he did last season (39.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  JJ Bleday is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Athletics hitters jointly rank near the top of baseball this year (10th-) when assessing their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Landen Roupp’s fastball spin rate of 2008 rpm grades out in the 8th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Wilmer Flores’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 84.9-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 81.5-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 68% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Luis Urias has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.85 Units / 31% ROI)