Score for Mariners vs Padres Game – May 17, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will look to bounce back after a disappointing 5-1 loss to the Seattle Mariners on May 16, 2025. With a strong record of 27-16, the Padres are positioned well in the standings and are hoping to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Petco Park. Meanwhile, the Mariners sit at 24-19, showing promise this season but looking to maintain that momentum.

In today’s matchup, the Padres are set to start Nick Pivetta, who boasts a solid Win/Loss record of 5-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.05. Although he got knocked around in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs over 4 innings, his overall performance this season suggests he is an above-average pitcher, ranking as the 65th best in MLB according to advanced stats. Pivetta’s projection for this game includes an average of 5.5 innings pitched and he is expected to allow 2.2 earned runs.

On the other side, the Mariners will counter with Emerson Hancock, who has struggled this season with a 1-2 record and a troubling ERA of 6.91. While projections indicate that Hancock may improve, he has a low strikeout rate and allowed 7 earned runs in his last start—a performance that did not inspire confidence.

Offensively, the Padres rank 12th in MLB, with a particularly strong batting average of 4th best in the league. Their ability to make contact will be key against Hancock, who is not known for generating strikeouts. In contrast, Seattle’s lineup ranks 10th overall but relies heavily on their power, having hit 59 home runs this season, which ranks 5th in MLB.

Overall, with the Padres favored at -190 and a high implied run total of 4.89 for today’s game, they are expected to capitalize on their pitching and offensive strengths against a struggling Mariners team.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (+165)
  The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the worst among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jorge Polanco tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 10.6% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners makes them the #5 offense in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Because groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Nick Pivetta (38.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Martin Maldonado – Over/Under Total Bases
  Martin Maldonado has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (31.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Emerson Hancock is a pitch-to-contact type (5th percentile K%) — great news for Maldonado.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+20.65 Units / 76% ROI)