Astros vs Rangers Value Bets and Betting Line – 5/17/2025

Houston Astros

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the Houston Astros on May 17, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League West matchup. The Rangers, currently holding a record of 24-22, are coming off a disappointing loss to the Astros the previous day, where they fell 6-3. Meanwhile, the Astros, with a record of 23-21, are also enjoying an above-average season and look to build on their recent success.

On the mound, Tyler Mahle is projected to start for the Rangers. With a Win/Loss record of 4-1 and an impressive ERA of 1.47, Mahle has been a standout performer this season, ranking as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, his 4.02 xFIP indicates he may be due for some regression, and he has struggled with allowing hits and walks in his projections for today. Despite this, Mahle’s recent form has been solid, as he pitched well in his last start on May 12, going six innings with only one earned run.

On the other side, Ronel Blanco takes the mound for the Astros. While his 4.04 ERA suggests he is above average, his underlying metrics point to potential improvement, as his 2.82 xERA indicates he may have been unlucky this season. Blanco has had a strong outing in his last start, going eight innings without allowing a run and striking out 11 batters.

Both offenses have had their struggles, with the Rangers ranking 27th in MLB this season, while the Astros sit at 16th. The matchup has the potential to be low-scoring, as the Game Total is set at 8.5 runs. The Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -120, implying a close contest, while the Astros sit at +100.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Ronel Blanco is projected to strikeout 5.1 bats in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In the last 7 days, Christian Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Victor Caratini hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Tyler Mahle meets a tough challenge squaring off against 8 hitters in the projected batting order of the same handedness in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jake Burger has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 99.9-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 35% ROI)