Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Tigers vs Blue Jays – Saturday, May 17, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Detroit Tigers on May 17, 2025, in the second game of their series at Rogers Centre. Yesterday, the Blue Jays fell to the Tigers in a nail-biter, losing 5-4, continuing their struggle this season with a record of 21-23. Meanwhile, the Tigers are riding high with a 30-15 record, making them one of the top contenders in the league this year.

Starting for the Blue Jays is Eric Lauer, who has been a bit of an enigma this season. He boasts a solid ERA of 2.00, but advanced metrics suggest he may not be as effective as his numbers indicate, ranking him as the 294th best starting pitcher in MLB. Lauer is known for his high strikeout rate (28.1 K%), which could play to his advantage against a Tigers offense that has the 5th most strikeouts in the league. However, he has also been a high-flyball pitcher (47 FB%), which could spell trouble against a powerful Tigers lineup that has belted 59 home runs this season.

On the other side, Reese Olson takes the mound for Detroit. Olson has been impressive this season with a 3.38 ERA and ranks as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ability to limit earned runs will be crucial, especially as the Tigers’ offense ranks 5th in overall performance and 5th in batting average. Olson’s recent start saw him struggle a bit, giving up 3 earned runs over 4 innings, but he has the potential to bounce back in this matchup.

Both teams boast strong bullpens, with the Blue Jays ranked 3rd and the Tigers 2nd in MLB. Given the current odds, the Blue Jays are viewed as slight underdogs despite their offensive struggles, which rank them 15th overall this season. As betting markets anticipate a closely contested game, it will be interesting to see if Toronto can leverage their strong bullpen and Lauer’s strikeout ability to turn their season around.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Reese Olson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Ranking in the 91st percentile, Reese Olson posted a 13.6% Swinging Strike rate this year.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Colt Keith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Detroit Tigers projected batting order today (.313 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .332 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Eric Lauer is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Daulton Varsho has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.2-mph average to last season’s 86.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 59% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.88 Units / 23% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 40% ROI)