Weather for Braves vs Red Sox Game – 5/16/25

Atlanta Braves

@

Boston Red Sox

On May 16, 2025, Fenway Park will host an intriguing interleague matchup between the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Red Sox holding a record of 22-23 and the Braves at 22-22. This matchup is particularly interesting given that the Red Sox’s offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB, while the Braves sit at 17th, suggesting a potential advantage for Boston’s hitters.

In their previous outings, the Red Sox lost a close game to the New York Yankees on May 14, falling 6-5, while the Braves secured a win against the Philadelphia Phillies, triumphing 5-2. Both teams will rely heavily on their starting pitchers to set the tone for this series opener. Boston’s Garrett Crochet, currently ranked 9th among MLB’s starting pitchers, boasts a stellar 1.93 ERA and has been consistently effective, with a 4-2 record this season. However, projections indicate that he might be due for some regression, as his xFIP sits at 3.14, suggesting he has enjoyed a bit of good fortune.

On the other side, Atlanta’s Chris Sale, ranked 11th, has struggled a bit this season with a 1-3 record and a 3.97 ERA. While Sale’s overall performance has been solid, the projections suggest he could improve, as his xFIP is lower than his ERA, indicating he might have been unlucky in some outings.

With both teams’ offenses performing differently, a key storyline will be how well the Braves can handle Crochet’s high strikeout rate in the face of their own offensive inconsistencies. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting the tight nature of this matchup. As both teams vie for supremacy in this early-season clash, expect fireworks at Fenway Park.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Chris Sale has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 8.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Matt Olson’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.5-mph now compared to just 91.3-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in MLB: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Garrett Crochet’s four-seamer percentage has fallen by 10.2% from last year to this one (53.7% to 43.5%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme groundball batters like Alex Bregman are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Sale.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.80 Units / 55% ROI)
• Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Nick Allen has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.50 Units / 32% ROI)