How to Watch the Guardians vs Reds Game – Friday May 16, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on May 16, 2025, both teams find themselves on contrasting paths this season. The Reds hold a record of 21-24, struggling to find their footing, while the Guardians boast a strong 25-18 record, showcasing their competitive edge. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and it promises to be pivotal for both clubs, particularly for the Reds as they look to turn their season around.

In their last outing, the Guardians displayed their offensive prowess, capitalizing on a strong performance to secure a victory. The Reds, on the other hand, have seen their offense rank 14th in MLB, but they struggle with a batting average that sits at a disappointing 21st. Despite their average power numbers, the Reds excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league. However, they face a tough challenge against Guardians’ pitcher Tanner Bibee, who has been effective this season with a 3.80 ERA and a Power Ranking of 74th among starting pitchers.

Brady Singer is set to take the mound for the Reds. With an average performance thus far, his 4.97 ERA leaves room for improvement, particularly against a high-strikeout Reds offense that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts. Singer has been projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, while Bibee is expected to match him in innings pitched but with a slightly better projection for earned runs allowed at 3.0.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, betting markets favor a close contest, reflected in the moneyline odds. The Reds may have a slight edge in implied team total at 4.34 runs, which could play a crucial role in their quest for a much-needed win.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Tanner Bibee is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Daniel Schneemann is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Brady Singer’s slider utilization has fallen by 10.9% from last season to this one (45.5% to 34.6%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Spencer Steer’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86.9-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 80.3-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-125)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Nolan Jones has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 70% ROI)