Get Tickets Information for Marlins vs Cubs – 5/12/2025

Miami Marlins

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Miami Marlins on May 12, 2025, at Wrigley Field in what marks the first game of this series. The Cubs are having a solid season with a record of 23-18, while the Marlins struggle at 15-24. This matchup is significant, considering the Cubs’ strong offensive performance, ranking 3rd in MLB, and their elite power numbers, including being 3rd in home runs.

In their last outing, the Cubs’ best hitter has been on a hot streak, recording 8 hits, 5 runs, and 4 RBIs over the last week, which should bolster their offensive efforts against the Marlins. The Cubs are heavily favored, reflected in their moneyline of -245, indicating an implied team total of 5.13 runs.

On the mound, Colin Rea is projected to start for the Cubs. Though ranking 197th among MLB pitchers might suggest a lack of elite status, his exceptional ERA of 2.43 this season is a testament to his effectiveness, even if his 3.98 xFIP suggests potential regression. Rea has been lucky this season, but he projects to pitch an average of 5.7 innings while allowing just 2.4 earned runs.

Conversely, the Marlins will counter with Cal Quantrill, who has struggled mightily this season. He holds a dismal ERA of 7.11 and has a higher xFIP of 4.55, indicating he may not be as bad as his numbers suggest, but his projections still favor a poor outing—averaging nearly 3 earned runs in just under 5 innings of work. With the Cubs’ offense poised to capitalize on Quantrill’s deficiencies, this game shapes up to heavily favor Chicago, making them a solid pick for bettors looking to capitalize on the odds.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Cal Quantrill’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (92.5 mph) below where it was last year (93.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Xavier Edwards is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Chicago (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-245)
  Colin Rea is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Kyle Tucker pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -1.0 (-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 37 games (+15.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.10 Units / 63% ROI)