See the Cubs vs Mets Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Friday May 9th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets host the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field on May 9, 2025, both teams are vying for momentum in a critical National League matchup. The Mets, with a record of 24-14, are in solid shape, currently sitting in a competitive position as the Cubs trail slightly at 22-16. The Mets are fresh off a commanding 7-1 victory against the Nationals on May 7, while the Cubs are looking to bounce back after a 3-1 loss to the Braves.

On the mound, the Mets are set to start Clay Holmes, who has shown himself to be one of the more effective pitchers in the league, boasting a 2.95 ERA and a Power Ranking of #22 among approximately 350 pitchers. His recent performance indicates that he might be in line for a strong outing, despite projecting to allow an average of 4.5 hits and 2.1 walks today. Holmes’ ground-ball percentage stands at a solid 52%, which could be beneficial against a Cubs lineup that thrives on power, with 55 home runs this season, ranking them 3rd in MLB.

Jameson Taillon, starting for the Cubs, has an ERA of 3.86 and is seen as a more average option. His recent start was solid, yielding only 2 earned runs, but he will need to step up to match Holmes’ performance. The projections suggest that Taillon might struggle against a Mets offense ranked 7th overall and 10th in batting average.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the Mets enter as the betting favorites at -145, reflecting an implied team total of 4.31 runs. Given their offensive prowess and the high stakes of this series opener, the Mets are poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage, especially as they seek to assert dominance over a Cubs team that has struggled against top-tier pitching.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.8% less often this season (51.7%) than he did last season (59.5%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Kyle Tucker are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Clay Holmes was in good form in his previous outing and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Francisco Alvarez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Mets projected offense grades out as the 2nd-strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 games (+6.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 14 away games (+9.90 Units / 61% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+130/-170)
  Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+7.00 Units / 28% ROI)