Review the Latest Player Stats for Rangers vs Red Sox – Thursday, May 8, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox host the Texas Rangers in the third game of their series at Fenway Park on May 8, 2025. After a solid 6-4 victory yesterday, the Red Sox are looking to build momentum against a Rangers squad that has struggled, losing their last matchup by the same score. With both teams sitting at an average 19-19 and 18-19 respectively, this game holds significance for both as they seek to turn their seasons around.

Starting for the Red Sox is Brayan Bello, who has emerged as a reliable option this year with a 2-0 record and an impressive 2.55 ERA. Despite his above-average performance, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some regression. Bello’s last outing was a strong one, allowing just one earned run over seven innings. He faces a Rangers offense ranked 27th in MLB, which has struggled to generate runs consistently. This matchup presents a favorable scenario for Bello, especially since the Rangers are the 2nd least patient team at the plate, potentially mitigating his control issues.

On the other side, Jack Leiter takes the mound for Texas, sporting a 4.58 ERA. While he’s had his moments this season, his last start was particularly troubling, as he was tagged for six earned runs in just four innings. The projections suggest that Leiter might bounce back, but he faces a Red Sox offense ranked 8th overall, known for its power and ability to capitalize on pitching mistakes.

With the Red Sox favored at -155 and an implied team total of 4.94 runs, they appear well-positioned to take another win, especially given their strong offensive capabilities against a struggling opponent.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Jack Leiter’s fastball velocity of 96.4 mph ranks in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Joc Pederson has been unlucky this year, putting up a .178 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .161 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Brayan Bello will give up an average of 5.2 singles in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Wyatt Langford has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 73% ROI)