Live Score for D-Backs vs Phillies – May 4th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Philadelphia Phillies

On May 4, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park for the third game of their series. The Phillies are currently 19-14 this season, showcasing a strong performance, while the Diamondbacks sit at 17-16, having an above-average year. In their last matchup on May 3, the Phillies secured a decisive 7-2 victory, continuing their momentum.

The Phillies will send Ranger Suarez to the mound, who ranks as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Suarez is projected to pitch an average of 6.0 innings, allowing only 2.3 earned runs, which bodes well against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 5th in overall offensive prowess this season. However, Suarez’s high hit allowance of 5.3 hits per game could be a concern against a team that has shown power, ranking 8th in home runs.

Eduardo Rodriguez will take the hill for Arizona, and while he has struggled with a 6.06 ERA this season, his xFIP of 3.39 suggests he may be due for a turnaround. Rodriguez’s last outing was particularly rough, as he allowed 8 earned runs over just 4 innings. With the Phillies’ offense ranking 11th overall and 8th in batting average, they could capitalize on Rodriguez’s recent struggles.

The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -155, implying a strong chance of victory. Given their recent form and the favorable matchup against Rodriguez, they may be poised to extend their winning streak. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an expectation for a moderately high-scoring affair.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Arizona Diamondbacks in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .311, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .329 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Ranger Suarez will average a total of 17.9 outs in this matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Bryce Harper has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 95.9-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 35% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+2.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Garrett Hampson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Garrett Hampson has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 32% ROI)