Examine the Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – Sunday, April 27, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Milwaukee Brewers on April 27, 2025, in what has become a crucial series for both teams despite their disappointing starts to the season. The Cardinals enter the game with a record of 12-15, while the Brewers sit slightly above them at 13-15. Both squads are hoping to turn around their fortunes as they look to establish some momentum in the National League Central.

In their previous outing, the Cardinals performed admirably, but their luck has been questionable lately. They are projected to start Erick Fedde, who, despite a solid ERA of 3.33, has been less fortunate in terms of performance indicators with a 5.63 xFIP. He’s managed only a 1-2 record over five starts this season and is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs and 5.1 hits today, which raises concerns. The Cardinals’ offense, however, ranks 5th in MLB, and they’re 2nd in batting average, suggesting they have the capability to support Fedde.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Jose Quintana, who brings an impressive 0.96 ERA to the mound. Quintana has notched a 3-0 record over three starts, but his xFIP of 4.24 indicates some luck may be involved in his success. With an average offense ranked 17th overall, the Brewers will need to capitalize on the Cardinals’ pitching struggles if they hope to earn a win.

This matchup reflects an intriguing contrast: a great offense against a strong pitcher in Quintana, while Fedde’s below-average status could lead to more offensive opportunities for the Brewers. As both teams vie for a solidifying win, this game has all the makings of a thriller in Busch Stadium.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Jose Quintana’s sinker usage has risen by 14.9% from last season to this one (30.4% to 45.3%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Christian Yelich generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Erick Fedde.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Erick Fedde’s 2065-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 13th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Over the last week, Brendan Donovan’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be sensible to expect worse results for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+9.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 42% ROI)