Team Stats and Insights for Reds vs Rockies Match Preview – 4/26/2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds prepare for their matchup on April 26, 2025, the stakes are clear for both teams. The Rockies are struggling in the early season with a dismal 4-21 record, making it hard to find a silver lining. In contrast, the Reds sit at a more respectable 13-13, showcasing a balanced start. This game marks the second of the series, with Cincinnati having taken the first game.

The Rockies are projected to start Antonio Senzatela, who has had a rough season. His current Win/Loss record stands at 1-3, and his ERA of 4.81—though below average—doesn’t capture the full extent of his struggles, as his xERA of 6.81 suggests he may have been lucky thus far. Senzatela’s average projections for the game include allowing 3.6 earned runs and striking out only 2.8 batters, which does not bode well against a Reds lineup that ranks 10th best in MLB.

On the other hand, Hunter Greene, projected to start for the Reds, has been a revelation with a 2.35 ERA and a strong 29.7% strikeout rate. Greene has been effective, and while his projections indicate he may allow 3.0 earned runs, he should find success against a Rockies offense that ranks 28th overall. Their tendency to strike out plays directly into Greene’s strengths.

Betting lines currently favor the Reds, who are listed at -185, while the Rockies are underdogs at +160. With the Rockies’ offense struggling and their pitching matchup leaning heavily in Cincinnati’s favor, this game could see the Reds capitalize on their superior performance metrics. As the Rockies aim to turn their season around, they will need a significant shift in momentum to overcome the Reds’ advantage.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Hunter Greene’s high usage percentage of his fastball (58.6% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jake Fraley has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Cincinnati Reds offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Antonio Senzatela’s fastball spin rate of 2201 rpm ranks in the 17th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Typically, hitters like Mickey Moniak who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Hunter Greene.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 away games (+4.40 Units / 33% ROI)
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+185/-245)
  Mickey Moniak has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)