Game Breakdown: Blue Jays vs Astros Team Stats and Insights – April 23, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays prepare for their matchup on April 23, 2025, at Minute Maid Park, both teams are looking to gain momentum after contrasting results in yesterday’s game. The Astros secured a decisive 5-1 victory, while the Blue Jays fell to the same score, marking a tough loss for them.

In the early going of the season, the Astros sit at 12-11, showing signs of an above-average year, while the Blue Jays are slightly behind at 12-12, reflecting a more average performance. Houston’s Ryan Gusto is projected to take the mound, and despite ranking as the 187th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics, he has managed a solid 3.18 ERA this season. His recent performance included a commendable outing on April 18 where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

On the other side, Bowden Francis, while struggling in the Power Rankings with a less-than-stellar reputation, boasts a respectable 3.13 ERA. His projections indicate that he will pitch an average of 5.4 innings but may also struggle, allowing around 3 earned runs and 1.4 walks.

Offensively, the Astros rank 24th in runs and home runs, suggesting that their batting lineup has underperformed despite some individual talent. In contrast, the Blue Jays, while also lacking in power with only 13 home runs this season, have a slightly better batting average, ranking 11th in the league.

Betting markets have set the moneyline for both teams at -110, indicating a close contest. However, given their recent performance and the edge in starting pitching, the Astros may hold the advantage in this matchup. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Bowden Francis’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (59.6 compared to 53.3% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 102.7-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 93.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Ryan Gusto’s 2443-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 88th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jeremy Pena tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bowden Francis.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 44% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+440/-700)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+19.40 Units / 242% ROI)