In-depth Player Analysis for Reds vs Marlins – Wednesday April 23, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds will face off on April 23, 2025, in a pivotal matchup as they both seek to improve from below-average seasons. Both teams currently sit near the bottom of the standings, with the Marlins at 11-12 and the Reds at 11-13. This game marks the third in their series, and the stakes are high as each team looks to claim the series victory following the Marlins’ narrow 4-3 win over the Reds yesterday.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Sandy Alcantara, who has had a rocky season with a Win/Loss record of 2-1 and an alarming ERA of 7.27. However, advanced metrics suggest that Alcantara has been somewhat unlucky, as his xFIP of 4.44 indicates he might turn things around soon. In his last outing on April 18, he struggled mightily, allowing 6 earned runs in just 2 innings pitched, which raises concerns heading into this game.

Brady Singer will take the mound for the Reds. He boasts an impressive 3-0 record with a solid ERA of 3.38. Singer’s performance has been above average, making him a reliable option against a struggling Marlins offense, despite their ranking as the 11th best in MLB this season. The projections indicate that Singer is likely to allow fewer runs than Alcantara, which could tip the scales in favor of the Reds.

The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a competitive matchup. Both teams have an implied team total of 4.00 runs, suggesting that oddsmakers expect a close contest. With the Marlins’ best hitter recently performing well, posting a .412 batting average over the last week, they will aim to capitalize on any mistakes from the Reds’ pitching staff. The outcome of this game could hinge on whether Alcantara can rebound from his last performance and if the Marlins can exploit their home-field advantage effectively.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Considering that flyball hitters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Brady Singer (46.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Fraley can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 9th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme flyball batters like Xavier Edwards are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brady Singer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jesus Sanchez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.05 Units / 45% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 65% ROI)