Explore the Game Breakdown: Phillies vs Mets Team Stats and Insights – 4/21/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets

The New York Mets will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field on April 21, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting National League East matchup. The Mets are currently riding high with a record of 15-7, while the Phillies stand at 13-9. In their most recent game, the Mets secured a victory against the Phillies, winning 7-5, which adds some extra tension to today’s series opener.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start Tylor Megill, who has had an impressive season thus far with a 1.40 ERA and a 2-2 record over four starts. Although he ranks as the 104th best starting pitcher in MLB, his excellent ERA suggests he has been fortunate, as indicated by his 3.40 xFIP, which is significantly higher than his ERA. Megill’s average projection for today includes allowing 2.3 earned runs over 5.0 innings, though he has struggled with hits and walks.

Opposing him will be Aaron Nola, who has had a rough start to the season with an alarming 6.65 ERA and an 0-4 record. Despite ranking as the 61st best starting pitcher, Nola has shown signs of bad luck, as his 3.44 xFIP suggests he could improve. His last outing was particularly tough, where he allowed 6 earned runs over 5 innings.

Offensively, the Mets rank 20th in MLB, struggling to find consistent power, while the Phillies boast the 5th best offense, which bodes well for them today. However, with the Mets as the betting favorite at a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 3.98 runs, they may be undervalued given their strong start to the season. The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight contest.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Aaron Nola has relied on his curveball 5.6% less often this year (27.3%) than he did last year (32.9%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Bats such as Johan Rojas with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tylor Megill who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Tylor Megill’s 2327-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a sizeable 109-rpm rise from last year’s 2218-rpm mark.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Brandon Nimmo has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 13.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-135)
  The best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 53% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.70 Units / 42% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)