Get Expert Player Predictions for Padres vs Tigers – Monday April 21, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers will host the San Diego Padres on April 21, 2025, in what marks the opening game of their interleague series. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Tigers sitting at 13-9 and the Padres at 16-6. The Tigers are coming off a tough loss against the Kansas City Royals, where they fell 4-3, while the Padres are riding high after a narrow 3-2 triumph over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

On the mound, the Tigers will start Keider Montero, who has struggled this season, holding a record of 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA after just one start. Montero’s advanced stats suggest he’s been unlucky, with a 2.46 xFIP that indicates potential for improvement. However, he faces a daunting challenge against a Padres offense that ranks 4th in MLB and boasts an impressive .358 batting average, led by their best hitter who has an OPS of 1.128.

Randy Vasquez will take the hill for the Padres, bringing a solid 1.74 ERA and a mixed bag of performance indicators. Although he has a low strikeout rate of 9.3 K%, he’ll face a Tigers lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts, potentially giving him the edge he needs. The projections suggest Vasquez is due for some regression, as his xFIP of 6.32 indicates he might not maintain his current success.

With an implied team total of 4.60 runs, the Tigers are favored in this matchup. Their offense has been average but remains capable of exploiting Vasquez’s weaknesses. Expect both teams to showcase their strengths, but the Tigers may have the edge at home, where their bullpen ranks 2nd best in MLB, providing a solid safety net for Montero’s performance and giving the Tigers a fighting chance in this compelling matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+125)
  The San Diego Padres outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Oscar Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Oscar Gonzalez is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the San Diego Padres in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .308, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .335 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Keider Montero is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #25 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Colt Keith’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.8-mph EV last year has dropped to 82.4-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+125)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.30 Units / 40% ROI)