Review the Latest Player Stats for Twins vs Braves – Saturday, April 19, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will host the Minnesota Twins on April 19, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup between two struggling teams. Both clubs currently sit at the bottom of their respective divisions, with the Braves holding a record of 6-13 and the Twins at 7-13. In their last game on April 18, the Braves managed to snap a losing streak, winning 6-4, while the Twins fell to the same score, continuing their search for consistency.

Chris Sale is projected to start for the Braves, bringing with him a reputation as a skilled left-handed pitcher, currently ranked as the 18th best in MLB according to advanced metrics. Although he has struggled this season with an ERA of 6.63, his xFIP of 3.32 suggests he may be due for a turnaround. Sale’s ability to strike out batters—averaging 6.7 strikeouts per game—will be crucial against a Twins offense that ranks 27th in the league.

On the other side, Simeon Woods Richardson is set to take the mound for Minnesota, but his performance has been subpar, with an average ERA of 4.30 and projected to pitch only 4.4 innings today. Against a Braves offense that, while ranking 21st overall, does have the potential to capitalize on a weak pitching performance, the odds favor Atlanta in this matchup.

With the Braves listed as a strong betting favorite at -235, the projections indicate they should exceed their implied team total of 4.50 runs, especially given the Twins’ deficiencies both at the plate and on the mound. As both teams look to gain momentum, the Braves will aim to build on their recent success and take advantage of their home-field advantage at Truist Park.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Simeon Woods Richardson’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this season (91.9 mph) below where it was last year (93.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jonah Bride – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Jonah Bride has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Minnesota Twins offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-255)
  Chris Sale is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #25 HR venue among all major league parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Matt Olson will probably have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The 10.3% Barrel% of the Atlanta Braves ranks them as the #2 club in the game since the start of last season by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +1.0 (-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 46% ROI)
• Chris Sale – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115/-115)
  Chris Sale has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.15 Units / 29% ROI)