Uncover the Game Forecast: Braves vs Blue Jays Match Preview – 4/15/25

Atlanta Braves

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Atlanta Braves in a crucial Interleague matchup on April 15, 2025. After a disappointing loss to the Braves by a score of 8-4 the previous day, the Blue Jays will look to bounce back against a struggling Braves team that currently holds a 5-11 record this season. The Blue Jays, sitting at 9-8, are having an above-average year, while the Braves are experiencing significant struggles.

On the mound, the Blue Jays are projected to start Kevin Gausman, who has had a solid season with a 2.33 ERA across three starts. However, his xFIP of 4.09 suggests he may not maintain this level of performance. Gausman is coming off a remarkable complete game shutout in his last start, where he allowed no earned runs while striking out 10 batters. He projects to pitch around 5.7 innings today and is expected to give up 3.1 earned runs, which is below average.

Facing Gausman will be the Braves’ Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been exceptional with a minuscule 0.45 ERA this season. Schwellenbach’s dominance is highlighted by his Power Rankings position as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB. Although he projects to pitch about 5.8 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, his high groundball rate (58 GB%) may neutralize the Blue Jays’ power deficiency.

Despite their recent performance, the Blue Jays’ offense ranks 13th overall and 5th in team batting average, showcasing their offensive potential. With a low Game Total set at 7.5 runs, oddsmakers expect a tightly contested game. The Blue Jays are currently listed at +100, presenting an intriguing opportunity for bettors to capitalize on their home advantage against a struggling Braves squad.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Spencer Schwellenbach’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (44.4 compared to 35.9% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Toronto’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Michael Harris II, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Michael Harris II hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Alejandro Kirk has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 2.5% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (18.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 48% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.70 Units / 6% ROI)
• Will Wagner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Will Wagner has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 76% ROI)