Score Updates for Cardinals vs Pirates – 4/7/25

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On April 7, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Pirates holding a 3-7 record and the Cardinals slightly better at 4-5. Pittsburgh’s recent win on April 6, where they edged out their opponent 5-4, contrasts sharply with St. Louis’s last outing, which saw them suffer a staggering 18-7 loss.

The matchup on the mound features Carmen Mlodzinski for the Pirates and Matthew Liberatore for the Cardinals. Mlodzinski, ranked as the 203rd best starting pitcher in MLB by the leading MLB projection system, has struggled this season, posting a poor 9.82 ERA. While he projects to pitch an average of 4.5 innings with 2.3 earned runs allowed, his high-groundball tendencies could serve him well against a Cardinals lineup that has shown power, ranking 5th in the league with 14 home runs.

On the other hand, Liberatore, who has an average 4.50 ERA, will need to leverage his control against a Pirates offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. His ability to limit walks, currently at 0.0 BB%, will be crucial, especially against a Pirates team that draws walks at the 6th highest rate.

Despite recent struggles, the Pirates’ offense has shown flashes of potential, particularly in stolen bases, where they rank 1st in MLB. However, their overall offensive rankings are concerning, sitting at 55th in batting average. The Cardinals, boasting the 3rd best overall offense, could exploit any weaknesses exhibited by Mlodzinski, especially if he struggles to keep the ball on the ground.

With both teams desperate for a win, this matchup should provide an interesting dynamic, as the Pirates seek to build on their recent victory, while the Cardinals look to rebound from a dismal performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Matthew Liberatore will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Brendan Donovan has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.2-mph average to last season’s 88.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 6th-luckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.5) may lead us to conclude that Oneil Cruz has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 21.5 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games at home (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 away games (+6.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 33% ROI)