Winning Probability and Team Stats for Blue Jays vs D-Backs Match – Saturday April 18, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  With 6 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Max Scherzer faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Jesus Sanchez is certain to never face a bullpen mismatch the entire game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 15.6° figure is among the highest in the league since the start of last season (#4 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  In his last outing, Zac Gallen struggled when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to tally 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Extreme groundball bats like Ildemaro Vargas tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Scherzer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Arizona Diamondbacks batters collectively place 26th- in the game for power since the start of last season when using their 91.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.05 Units / 47% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 18 games (+12.10 Units / 54% ROI)
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.95 Units / 31% ROI)