Winning Probability and Match Preview for Cardinals vs Braves – 7/01/2026

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Atlanta Braves

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Michael McGreevy’s change-up percentage has risen by 10.1% from last year to this one (11% to 21.1%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.6-mph average last season has lowered to 86.3-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• St. Louis ranks as the #28 offense in the game when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (14.1% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Reynaldo Lopez’s 2061-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 5th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ha-Seong Kim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Despite posting a .130 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ha-seong Kim has had some very poor luck given the .169 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .299.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 34% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.45 Units / 40% ROI)