Weather for Braves vs Red Sox Game – 5/16/25

Atlanta Braves

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on May 16, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons, with records of 22-23 and 22-22, respectively. This Interleague matchup marks the first game in a series that could be pivotal for both squads as they look to gain momentum. The Red Sox’s recent performance has been highlighted by their potent offense, ranked 8th in MLB, which may benefit from facing Braves pitcher Chris Sale, who has struggled with a 1-3 record this season.

Garrett Crochet, projected to start for the Red Sox, has been exceptional, boasting a 4-2 record and an impressive ERA of 1.93. His recent form is notable, as he projects to allow just 2.3 earned runs while striking out an average of 7.4 batters. However, his xFIP of 3.13 suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, indicating potential regression could be on the horizon. On the other hand, Chris Sale, with a solid yet not elite ERA of 3.97, has faced his share of misfortune this season, as his xFIP is lower than his actual ERA, hinting he could turn things around.

The Red Sox offense has been firing on all cylinders, particularly their best hitter, who has recently recorded 9 hits in 5 games with a remarkable .529 batting average. In contrast, the Braves rank only 16th in MLB offensively, making this matchup particularly intriguing. The Red Sox’s current moneyline of -125 suggests they are favored to win, and given their offensive capabilities and Crochet’s elite pitching, they may indeed outperform expectations in this contest.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+135)
  Chris Sale has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 8.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Matt Olson’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.5-mph now compared to just 91.3-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in MLB: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
  Garrett Crochet’s four-seamer percentage has fallen by 10.2% from last year to this one (53.7% to 43.5%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme groundball batters like Alex Bregman are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Sale.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.80 Units / 55% ROI)
• Eli White – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-250)
  Eli White has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 36% ROI)