Watch the Game Highlights for Brewers vs Rangers – Tuesday, September 09, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 9, 2025, in the second game of their series after the Rangers secured a convincing 5-0 victory in yesterday’s matchup. This clash features two teams with contrasting seasons; the Brewers are thriving with a robust 89-56 record, while the Rangers sit at 75-70, showcasing an above-average performance but still hovering below playoff contention.

Jack Leiter, projected to start for the Rangers, has shown sporadic effectiveness this season with a 9-8 win/loss record and a solid ERA of 3.74. However, his 4.62 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate, and he has struggled with his control, walking 11.4% of batters faced. This could play into the hands of the Brewers’ patient lineup, which ranks 5th in MLB for drawing walks. Leiter’s projections for this game indicate a potentially rocky outing, with expectations of allowing 2.5 earned runs over 5 innings coupled with a high average of 4.5 hits.

On the other side, Chad Patrick is no stranger to his own struggles, posting a 3-8 record with a 3.60 ERA. His peripherals also signal possible regression, but he holds an edge in recent outings, having pitched effectively in his last start where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

Offensively, the Brewers’ lineup has been impressive, ranking 10th in MLB, and their best hitter is currently on fire, boasting a 0.533 batting average over the last week. In contrast, the Rangers rank a concerning 27th offensively, making run production a challenge. With both teams having average projections for total runs set at 4.25 for this game, the Rangers will need to significantly improve their offensive output to overcome the well-rounded Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Chad Patrick’s fastball velocity of 87.2 mph ranks in the 2nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Jack Leiter will record an average of 2.1 singles today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Cody Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Cody Freeman has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.3-mph dropping to 81-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Texas Rangers have hit 30.4% of their balls in the air 100 mph or harder this year, ranking them as the #21 group of hitters in the game by this standard.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Run Line +1.0 (-140)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+12.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 95 games (+30.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.80 Units / 31% ROI)