Watch the Cardinals vs Giants Game Highlights – September 22nd, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 22, 2025, both teams find themselves in a battle for pride rather than playoff contention, sitting at 77-79 and 76-80, respectively. This matchup marks the first game of their series, and the Giants will aim to capitalize on their home field advantage at Oracle Park.

In their last outing, the Cardinals struggled against the Chicago Cubs, losing 8-3. The Giants have had their share of ups and downs but are looking to build momentum. Justin Verlander is projected to take the mound for San Francisco, bringing a solid 3.75 ERA this season, despite a challenging 3-10 record. Verlander, ranked as the 89th best starting pitcher in MLB, has been effective but has faced some tough luck, as indicated by his higher xFIP of 4.63. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, though he will need to improve on his projections of 5.1 hits and 1.4 walks allowed.

On the other side, Michael McGreevy is set to start for St. Louis. With a 7-3 record and a 4.08 ERA, McGreevy ranks 73rd among MLB starters. His projections suggest he will throw 5.1 innings, allowing around 2.6 earned runs. However, he has been less effective in terms of strikeouts, averaging only 3.6 per game, which could be a disadvantage against a Giants lineup that, despite ranking 22nd in overall offense, has shown flashes of potential.

While the Giants rank 25th in bullpen performance compared to the Cardinals’ 14th, the projections still favor San Francisco, who are currently a betting favorite with a moneyline of -145. With a low game total of 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on Verlander’s ability to limit damage and exploit the Cardinals’ lack of power, as they rank 28th in home runs this season. Expect a tightly contested game as both teams seek to end their seasons on a high note.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Out of all SPs, Michael McGreevy’s fastball velocity of 91.2 mph grades out in the 21st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Over the last two weeks, Nolan Gorman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Thomas Saggese, Pedro Pages, Nolan Gorman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (42% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Casey Schmitt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Casey Schmitt’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 89.1-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 77.4-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 69 games (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+175/-230)
  Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 15 games at home (+7.50 Units / 50% ROI)