Uncover the Game Forecast: Brewers vs Pirates Head-to-Head Analysis 5/24/25

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 24, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an enticing matchup for fans and bettors alike. Both teams are struggling this season, with Pittsburgh sitting at 18-34 and Milwaukee at 25-27. The Pirates’ offensive woes have been evident throughout the year as they rank 29th in MLB in batting average, home runs, and overall offensive performance. Meanwhile, the Brewers, while slightly better, also rank 25th in these categories.

In their last game, the Pirates lost to the Brewers, a setback that adds to their already disappointing season. Pittsburgh is projected to start Mitch Keller, a right-handed pitcher with an ERA of 3.88 this season, despite a challenging 1-6 record. Keller’s advanced stats indicate that he has been somewhat fortunate, as his xERA sits at 4.45, suggesting a decline may be in store. Combining this with the Pirates’ poor offensive output, Keller will face a tough challenge.

Quinn Priester, also a right-hander for the Brewers, comes in with an average 4.66 ERA and a less-than-ideal 1-2 record. His performance metrics indicate he has also benefited from some luck this season. However, Priester’s high ground-ball rate (54 GB%) may neutralize the Pirates’ lack of power, particularly given their low home run count.

With both teams looking to turn their fortunes around, the projections suggest a close contest, setting an average run total of 8.5 for the game. The Pirates may have an edge in this close matchup, particularly with the potential for Keller to outperform his recent form against a below-average Brewers lineup.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  In his last outing, Quinn Priester was in good form and gave up 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 83.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 69.2-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-215/+165)
  Extreme flyball batters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Quinn Priester.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+10.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+6.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Christian Yelich has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+7.60 Units / 127% ROI)