Twins vs Royals Game Time – 9/07/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals

On September 7, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Minnesota Twins at Kauffman Stadium in the third game of their series. The Royals sit at 73-69 this season, having recently secured a commanding 11-2 victory over the Twins, who are struggling at 62-80. This American League Central matchup sees both teams looking to establish momentum as the season winds down.

Kansas City’s offense ranks 23rd overall in MLB, which paints a picture of their struggles, particularly in power, where they are 25th in home runs. However, they have shown a slight uptick, with their best hitter maintaining a solid .294 batting average and 0.855 OPS this season. Recently, he has been productive, hitting .318 with a 0.905 OPS over the past week.

On the mound, the Royals will send Michael Lorenzen to the hill, who has been inconsistent with a 5-9 record and an average ERA of 4.54. His last outing on September 2, where he pitched six innings with only two earned runs, suggests he may be finding his groove. He projects to go an average of 5.1 innings today and allow around 2.6 earned runs.

Bailey Ober, starting for the Twins, brings a 4-7 record and a troubling 5.23 ERA. Although he has faced challenges, projections indicate he might perform better than his numbers suggest, due to some bad luck this season. Ober’s effectiveness could be limited against a Royals lineup that strikes out the least in the league, giving Lorenzen an edge in this matchup.

With Kansas City having the better recent form and a home-field advantage, the Royals have an implied team total of 4.35 runs for today’s game, signaling the sportsbooks’ belief in their chances to capitalize against a struggling Twins squad.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Byron Buxton has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 96.3-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Michael Lorenzen’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (59.7% compared to 51.7% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Salvador Perez tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 80 of their last 130 games (+25.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 67 away games (+13.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.45 Units / 36% ROI)