St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)+110
The Pittsburgh Pirates will face the St. Louis Cardinals in the third game of their series on July 2, 2025, at PNC Park. The Pirates are struggling this season, sitting at 37-50, while the Cardinals are in a better position at 47-40. In their last matchup on July 1, the Pirates secured a narrow 1-0 victory, marking a much-needed win for a team that has had a rough go this year.
On the mound, Mitch Keller takes the hill for Pittsburgh. Although his season record is a disappointing 2-10, his ERA of 3.90 suggests he might have been a bit unlucky thus far. Keller’s 3.33 FIP indicates he has potential for improvement, but he will need to tighten up his control, as he projects to allow 1.5 walks and 6.3 hits today, both of which are concerning metrics. Keller’s last start on June 27 wasn’t terrible, as he pitched five innings with only one earned run, but he will face a tough challenge against an above-average Cardinals offense.
Sonny Gray, projected to start for St. Louis, is having an impressive season with an 8-2 record and a stellar 3.36 ERA. He recently pitched a complete game shutout on June 27, showcasing his ability to dominate opposing lineups. With a high strikeout rate of 26.9% going up against the Pirates, who rank 5th in the league in strikeouts, Gray appears poised to have the upper hand in this matchup.
The game’s total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating that sportsbooks expect a pitchers’ duel. The projections suggest a close game, with the Pirates having a low implied team total of 3.66 runs. However, given the context of both teams’ current forms and Keller’s potential for a bounce-back performance, it might be worth keeping an eye on this matchup as a potential value play.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Sonny Gray’s 91.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 92.3-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- St. Louis Cardinals batters as a group grade out 22nd- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 7.9% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Mitch Keller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)Tallying 17.5 outs per GS this year on average, Mitch Keller checks in at the 86th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Andrew McCutchen has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-160)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games (+11.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+135)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 28 away games (+14.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)Masyn Winn has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.95 Units / 33% ROI)