Simulation and Insights for Tigers vs Guardians Match Preview - Wednesday October 01, 2025

+110O/U: 7
(+100/-120)-130

Casey Mize – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-145)
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Casey Mize is projected to throw 73 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Spencer Torkelson is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Cleveland (#3-best of all teams on the slate).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-most strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Detroit Tigers with a 24.6% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Tanner Bibee’s four-seamer rate has dropped by 16% from last year to this one (43.4% to 27.4%) .
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Bo Naylor is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 123 games (+16.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 away games (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+6.05 Units / 18% ROI)

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