Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)-110
The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 13, 2024, in a crucial National League matchup. Both teams are in strong positions, with the Dodgers sitting at 70-49 and the Brewers at 67-51. The Brewers are looking to bounce back after losing to the Dodgers 5-2 in their most recent game on August 12, where they struggled to capitalize on opportunities.
Colin Rea is projected to take the mound for the Brewers, coming off an impressive outing on August 6, where he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs and struck out 9 batters. However, his Power Rankings position as the 189th best starting pitcher in MLB suggests he may not be as reliable moving forward, despite a solid 3.38 ERA. His projections indicate he could allow 3.0 earned runs and struggle with 5.4 hits and 1.6 walks on average today.
On the other hand, the Dodgers will counter with Gavin Stone, who has been a below-average pitcher this season. While Stone’s ERA stands at a respectable 3.71, his recent performance included allowing 3 earned runs in just 5 innings during his last start. The projections show he might yield about 2.6 earned runs while also giving up 5.3 hits and 1.7 walks.
Offensively, the Brewers rank 8th in MLB, bolstered by Willy Adames, their best hitter, who has been productive this season. In contrast, the Dodgers possess the 5th best offense, led by Shohei Ohtani, who has been exceptional with 36 home runs and a 1.007 OPS.
Betting markets have set both teams’ moneylines at -110, indicating a close contest. However, the projections lean toward the Dodgers as slight favorites, suggesting they might outperform expectations in this matchup. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, fans can anticipate an exciting showdown at American Family Field.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to score the 3rd-most runs (5.41 on average) on the slate today.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected offense today (.312 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .323 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+8.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.90 Units / 53% ROI)