See the Starting Lineup for Guardians vs Tigers – September 17, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face off against the Cleveland Guardians on September 17, 2025, at Comerica Park, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the American League Central. The Tigers currently hold a record of 85-66, showcasing a successful season, while the Guardians sit at 79-71, having an above-average campaign. This matchup is pivotal for both teams, especially the Tigers, who are vying for a stronger playoff position.

In their previous game, the Tigers demonstrated their offensive prowess, defeating the Guardians with a standout performance from their best hitter, who has been on a hot streak lately. This success is reflected in the Tigers’ 11th best ranking in overall offensive production, buoyed by their power hitting, as evidenced by their ranking of 10th in the league for home runs.

On the mound, the Tigers will start Jack Flaherty, who has had a challenging season with an 8-13 record and a 4.69 ERA. However, his 3.68 xFIP suggests he might have been unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. Flaherty projects to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, but his high average of 4.7 hits allowed could be a concern.

Gavin Williams takes the mound for the Guardians. With a solid 10-5 record and an impressive 3.16 ERA, Williams has been performing well, although his 4.27 xFIP suggests he might not sustain this level of success. He projects for 5.0 innings pitched and an average of 2.6 earned runs.

Despite both bullpens being ranked around the middle of the league, the Tigers’ offensive strength, combined with Flaherty’s potential upside, positions them as the favorites in this matchup. The current betting line suggests the Tigers have an implied team total of 4.35 runs, reflecting confidence in their lineup against Williams. The Game Total stands at a reasonable 8.0 runs, making for an intriguing contest.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Gavin Williams has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 6.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Bo Naylor has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 96.2-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Jack Flaherty has relied on his slider 5.8% less often this season (23.2%) than he did last year (29%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Zach McKinstry’s true offensive ability to be a .302, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .033 gap between that figure and his actual .335 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 41 games at home (+18.80 Units / 39% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+125)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 57 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Gavin Williams has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.80 Units / 36% ROI)