See the Starting Lineup for Astros vs Athletics - September 26, 2026

-165O/U: 10
(-110/-110)+145

Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
Hayden Wesneski has notched a .257 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.
Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#1-worst on the slate).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Houston’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the league: #24 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jack Perkins – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+140)
Compared to league average, Jack Perkins has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -7.8 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Carlos Cortes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
Carlos Cortes is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Jonah Heim hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+13.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 away games (+12.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)

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