
Seattle Mariners

San Francisco Giants
(+100/-120)-115
On April 6, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Seattle Mariners at Oracle Park in what is shaping up to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Giants, currently sitting atop the standings with a stellar record of 7-1, are riding high this season. In contrast, the Mariners have struggled, recording just three wins against six losses, leading to concerns about their performance.
In their last game, the Giants continued their strong play, while the Mariners are still searching for consistency. For the Giants, Jordan Hicks is projected to take the mound, bringing a perfect 1-0 record and an impressive 0.00 ERA into the matchup, despite a higher xFIP suggesting he may have been somewhat fortunate thus far. The projections suggest Hicks might allow 2.1 earned runs over approximately five innings, but his high walk rate could pose an issue against a Mariners offense that ranks 2nd in the league in drawing walks.
On the other side, Bryan Woo has also emerged as a reliable option for the Mariners, boasting a 1-0 record and a solid 1.50 ERA. However, much like Hicks, his projections reveal potential regression may be on the horizon, as his xFIP of 4.34 indicates some luck as well. Woo’s strikeout numbers are below-average, adding to the challenges Seattle may face against the Giants’ lineup.
Despite the Giants’ #23 ranking in offensive production, their strong bullpen—ranked 4th in MLB—gives them an edge in close games. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ 33rd overall offensive ranking, underscored by a poor batting average, is a significant concern. With both teams having a low implied team total for today’s game, the expectations are that runs will be hard to come by. Betting markets see this matchup as close, but the Giants’ current form and superior pitching could make them the team to back in this contest.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)Bryan Woo is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Cal Raleigh’s launch angle this season (28.4°) is a significant increase over his 21° angle last year.Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Jordan Hicks’s high utilization rate of his fastball (56.5% since the start of last season) is likely weakening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Mike Yastrzemski has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Projected catcher Patrick Bailey grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 48 away games (+16.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.05 Units / 65% ROI)