See the Odds and Betting Tips for Brewers vs Phillies – June 1st, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Philadelphia Phillies

On June 1, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park for the third game of their series. The Phillies, currently sitting at 36-22, have been enjoying a strong season and boast the 5th best offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Brewers have a record of 31-28, placing them 25th in offensive performance this year, highlighting a stark contrast in productivity at the plate.

In the previous game between these two teams, the Phillies emerged victorious, showcasing their potent lineup against the Brewers’ struggling offense. Ranger Suarez is set to take the mound for Philadelphia. He has been exceptional this season, with a 4-0 record and an impressive 2.97 ERA, positioning him as one of the top pitchers in the league, ranked 26th overall. Projections suggest he will pitch an average of 6.0 innings, allowing just 2.2 earned runs, which bodes well for the Phillies’ chances.

On the other side, the Brewers will send Jose Quintana to the hill. While Quintana has a respectable 2.65 ERA, he is considered one of the weaker pitchers in MLB, evident by his high 4.22 xFIP. Projections indicate he might struggle, allowing 2.7 earned runs over an average of 5.0 innings pitched, which could amplify the Phillies’ offensive opportunities.

The matchup heavily favors the Phillies, both in terms of starting pitching and overall offensive capability. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and Philadelphia favored with a moneyline of -175, betting on the Phillies to continue their strong season appears prudent.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Jose Quintana has utilized his sinker 15.1% more often this year (45.5%) than he did last season (30.4%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.8-mph EV last year has fallen to 83.8-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Collectively, Milwaukee Brewers bats have not performed well as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating worst in the game.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Ranger Suarez’s fastball spin rate of 1995.7 rpm ranks in the 8th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Johan Rojas usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Quintana.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+6.04 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+8.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-185)
  Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 38% ROI)