See Picks and Betting Line for Pirates vs Brewers – Saturday, April 25, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  In his last start, Mitch Keller performed well and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Nick Gonzales has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Placing 7th-lowest in the league this year, Pittsburgh Pirates bats as a group have notched a 11.2° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).
  Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Jacob Misiorowski is expected to post an average of 7.3 strikeouts in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• David Hamilton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  David Hamilton’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87-mph EV last year has dropped to 83.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)