Score Updates for Cardinals vs Pirates – 4/7/25

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the St. Louis Cardinals clash with the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on April 7, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season. The Pirates sit at 3-7, while the Cardinals are just slightly better at 4-5. Each team enters the matchup looking to spark a turnaround after contrasting performances in their last games—the Pirates narrowly edged out their opponents 5-4, while the Cardinals suffered a heavy 18-7 defeat.

On the mound, Carmen Mlodzinski is set to start for the Pirates. Despite his rough start to the season, with an ERA of 9.82, projections suggest that he might fare better moving forward. His 3.25 xFIP indicates that some of his struggles may be due to bad luck. Mlodzinski will need to leverage his groundball tendencies (62% GB rate) against a Cardinals offense that ranks 3rd in the league overall.

Matthew Liberatore takes the ball for St. Louis, coming off a solid performance where he logged six innings and allowed three earned runs. With an average ERA of 4.50 this season, his projections reveal better results could be possible, given a favorable 2.39 xFIP. Liberatore’s low strikeout (18.2 K%) and walk rates (0.0 BB%) could be advantageous against a Pirates lineup that struggles with strikeouts, ranking 2nd in MLB for total strikeouts.

The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations of a close contest. The Pirates carry a +105 moneyline, indicating a 47% win probability, while the Cardinals sit at -125 with a 53% probability. If the Pirates can exploit their base paths—after ranking 1st in MLB for stolen bases—there may be opportunity to steal a win in this competitive matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  With 8 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Matthew Liberatore will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Brendan Donovan has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.2-mph average to last season’s 88.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.5) may lead us to conclude that Oneil Cruz has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 21.5 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games at home (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 away games (+6.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.85 Units / 24% ROI)