Score Updates for Athletics vs Astros – 7/24/25

Athletics

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Houston Astros

On July 24, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park for the first game of their series. The Astros currently sit at 60-42, enjoying a strong season, while the Athletics are struggling with a 42-62 record. In their most recent games, the Astros secured a narrow 4-3 victory, while the Athletics fell short in a 2-1 loss.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers, with the Astros projected to start Jason Alexander and the Athletics set to go with Luis Severino. Alexander’s season has been rocky, with an ERA of 8.40, ranking him as the 277th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 5.81 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. In contrast, Severino has a 5.10 ERA and a record of 3-11, making both pitchers susceptible to the opposing offenses.

The Astros’ offense ranks 10th overall in MLB, bolstered by a 2nd place standing in team batting average, which could exploit the Athletics’ 28th ranked bullpen. The projections indicate that Houston’s offense is likely to score around 4.87 runs, making them a strong betting favorite with a moneyline of -150.

Meanwhile, the Athletics, despite having the 12th best offense overall, face challenges with their pitching and bullpen performance. Their best hitter has been on a hot streak, batting .500 over the last week, but it may not be enough against a potent Astros lineup.

Given the current trajectories of both teams, the Astros appear poised to capitalize on their home advantage and continue their strong performance against a struggling Athletics squad.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all starters, Luis Severino’s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph grades out in the 83rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Schuemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Max Schuemann’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 89-mph figure last year has dropped off to 85.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Luis Urias pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jason Alexander is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Zack Short – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Sacramento’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Zack Short, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Houston Astros today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .304, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .320 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 61 games (+14.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 76 games (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Cam Smith has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+7.10 Units / 101% ROI)