Score Prediction and Insights for Athletics vs Mariners Match – August 24, 2025

Athletics

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Seattle Mariners

On August 24, 2025, the Seattle Mariners host the Oakland Athletics in the third game of their series at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, currently sitting with a record of 69-61, are enjoying an above-average season. In contrast, the Athletics have struggled at 60-71, marking their performance as below par. Seattle has a strong bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, which could play a crucial role in the outcome of this matchup.

In their last game, the Mariners showcased their strength by defeating the Athletics, further solidifying their standing in the crowded playoff race. Looking ahead, Seattle’s Logan Gilbert is projected to take the mound. Gilbert, who ranks as the 21st best pitcher in MLB per advanced metrics, has had a rocky season with a Win/Loss record of 3-5 and an ERA of 3.83. His strong metrics like a 2.69 xFIP indicate he has been somewhat unlucky and could potentially see better results moving forward. However, he has been giving up a high number of hits and walks lately, which could pose problems against Oakland’s offensive lineup.

The Athletics will counter with Jacob Lopez, who comes in with a respectable 7-6 record and an impressive ERA of 3.28. Lopez is a left-handed pitcher and, while he is ranked 54th among starting pitchers, he faces a Mariners offense that ranks 3rd in home runs this season. The Athletics’ offense is robust, ranking 5th in batting average and home runs, but they struggle significantly with stolen bases, ranking 22nd.

With the Mariners favored in this matchup, their offensive firepower, coupled with a strong pitching performance from Gilbert, gives them an edge in what should be an exciting game. The game’s total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight contest, but the Mariners are expected to capitalize on Lopez’s flyball tendencies to drive home runs and secure a victory.

Athletics Insights

• Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  With 7 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Jacob Lopez encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Nicholas Kurtz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 93.1-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Athletics offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Logan Gilbert’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.8 mph this season (94.8 mph) below where it was last year (96.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#1-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+13.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+185/-245)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.50 Units / 34% ROI)