Score for Rays vs Blue Jays Game – July 23, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 23, 2024, at Rogers Centre in the first game of their American League East series. The Blue Jays are currently struggling with a 45-54 record, while the Rays sit at an even 50-50, making this an intriguing matchup between two underperforming teams.

The Blue Jays will be sending right-hander Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios, ranked the 165th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, has had an inconsistent season with a 4.01 ERA and an 8-7 record over 20 starts. His 4.54 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate and might face regression. In his last outing on July 13, Berrios was roughed up, allowing five earned runs over four innings. Despite this, he projects to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with left-hander Tyler Alexander, who has struggled mightily this season. With a 6.19 ERA over 11 starts, Alexander’s underlying metrics suggest he’s been unlucky, as his 4.59 xFIP indicates. However, Alexander’s low strikeout rate (19.4 K%) could be a disadvantage against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 4th in least strikeouts. His high flyball rate could also be mitigated by Toronto’s lack of power, as they rank 27th in home runs.

Offensively, both teams have underwhelmed this season. The Blue Jays rank 21st in batting average and 27th in home runs and stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the standout, boasting a .292 batting average and 16 home runs. Meanwhile, the Rays, ranked 22nd in overall offense, have seen Isaac Paredes lead the way with a .803 OPS. Randy Arozarena has been hot over the last week, hitting .375 with three home runs and a 1.474 OPS.

The Blue Jays bullpen is ranked 23rd, while the Rays’ bullpen isn’t much better at 20th. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Blue Jays have a 58% projected win probability for today’s game, higher than their implied probability of 55%. Betting markets see this as a close contest, but with Berrios on the mound and the Blue Jays’ recent win, Toronto might have the edge.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.331) suggests that Jose Siri has been unlucky this year with his .292 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Brandon Lowe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Out of all SPs, Jose Berrios’s fastball spin rate of 2158 rpm ranks in the 23rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In the last two weeks, Daulton Varsho’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (18.8 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy team of batters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+13.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 97 games (+10.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+15.70 Units / 47% ROI)